NESG: 2027 Election Spending, Insecurity Pose Risks to Nigeria’s H2 Growth Outlook
Flooding, insecurity threaten agriculture, food supply, non-oil growth Stronger oil recovery, capital inflows may push growth above projections Emmanuel Addeh in Abuja The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has warned that
The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) warns that Nigeria's economic growth outlook for the second half of 2026 may be at risk due to several factors. The organization highlights that flooding and insecurity, particularly in the North-central and North-west regions, pose significant threats to agriculture, food supply, and non-oil sector growth.
These issues could disrupt agricultural production and mining activities, while also hindering the movement of goods and services across the country, discouraging both domestic and foreign investment.
The NESG also points out that escalating political activities ahead of the 2027 general elections could weaken reform momentum and fiscal discipline, placing pressure on macroeconomic stability and weakening investor confidence. With increased pre-election spending, the report anticipates potential delays in critical structural reforms and reduced investor confidence when the country is already consolidating recent economic stabilisation gains.
On the positive side, stronger-than-projected recovery in the oil sector, coupled with higher oil prices, could boost Nigeria's fiscal revenues and external reserves. This, in turn, may accelerate economic growth beyond current projections. Additionally, higher foreign capital inflows, combined with faster implementation of structural reforms, could further strengthen investor confidence and stimulate private sector investment, ultimately supporting sustainable growth in Nigeria's non-oil economy.
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