Los mercados afrontan una nueva ola de subidas de tipos

The global markets are bracing for another surge in interest rates this September. Between September 10 and 18, investors anticipate rate hikes from three of the world's leading central banks. Central banks have become the primary focus of markets as the final stretch of August draws to a close, and this pattern is expected to continue into September.

The Jackson Hole summit has tipped the scales in favor of further rate hikes, with the most influential U.S. Federal Reserve taking the lead. If current predictions hold, the Fed will mirror the widely anticipated rate hike by the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan. All these expected rate hikes will occur within a narrow timeframe, just eight days between September 10 and 18.

Since the summer, analysts had marked the last week of August on their calendars as the key meeting of central banks. The expectation was justified by the impact on markets. Even the most skeptical investment firms admit to a paradigm shift. UBS analysts highlight the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized the need for inflation progress in his Jackson Hole speech on Friday.

This led to an almost 60% chance of a rate hike at the September 15-16 meeting, up from 35-40% prior to the speech. The most probable scenario now is an imminent rate hike. Lazard analysts explain that Kevin Warsh did not explicitly state his support for a rate hike at the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting, but markets interpreted his comments as a much more likely 25 basis point increase than previously thought.

This shift in perspective is due to the hawkish tone of Warsh's speech, according to analysts at Renta4. Inflation remains the top priority for Fed monitoring, and Renta4 believes Warsh has given the market everything it needs to raise the likelihood of a September rate hike, particularly at the meeting scheduled for September 16.

The chances of a Fed rate hike in September now exceed 50%, leaving little room for doubt, while the European Central Bank's outlook is much clearer. The latest known CPI data in countries like Spain and France, according to Renta4, solidify the restrictive stance of the ECB ahead of its September meeting, placing a 95% probability of a 25 basis point increase.

The eurozone inflation figure, expected tomorrow, could further solidify these prospects. Bankinter analysts point to this week as the focus on the European side, with the August CPI expected to take center stage. After the past week's spikes in inflation in Spain and France, the eurozone is expected to rise to +3.3% from 2.9% in July.

Therefore, Bankinter admits, a new 25 basis point hike is already discounted by the European market ahead of its September 10 meeting. The ECB's anticipated rate hike on September 10 and the U.S. hike now being considered for September 16 are expected to continue, barring surprise, with a further hike on September 18 in Japan. As of the end of August, markets discount a 70% chance of the Bank of Japan raising rates at its September 18 meeting.

Early in August, the historic joint intervention by the U.S. and Japan to curb yen declines increased pressure for further rate hikes. The U.S. intervention was accompanied by a direct request. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent accompanied the yen intervention with a specific request for further U.S. rate hikes. Since then, Mitsubishi UFJ analysts suggested that the impression is now that a September rate hike is a fait accompli.

It would make no sense for the Bank of Japan to wait until October and cause another yen depreciation.