La línea roja del mercado ante la que Estados Unidos va a acudir al rescate

The headline translates to "The market line that will prompt the United States to seek a rescue." According to the source, this summer's main battle will be centered around the American debt. For investors who were fully disconnected during their vacations and started monitoring their screens again today, August has been a solid month.

Spanish Ibex 35 rose by 0.5%, surpassing 20,000 points for the first time in history, although it fell back down yesterday, and the S&P 500 increased by around 2.5%. However, there were certainly some outliers. The wars in Iran and Ukraine continue with negative impacts on oil prices and inflation; central banks are preparing interest rate hikes; Nvidia's results provide further support to the artificial intelligence (AI) rally; and the U.S. public debt surpassed $4 trillion.

The U.S. administration under Donald Trump intervened to protect the Japanese yen and announced the purchase of even more American bonds. In fact, inflation signals can be perceived in assets outside of the stock market. Debt costs have surged in several Western countries, the dollar has become weaker, and in response, gold and bitcoin soared in a typical movement when the American currency depreciates.

Choosing the main novelty of August for the market was the U.S. Treasury's decision to double long-term bond purchases to $4 billion per issuance, in order to contain the rise in debt costs resulting from persistent inflation, increasing public deficit, and massive AI investments. Chris Wood, a strategist at Jefferies, notes that this maneuver is evidence of the desire to contain interest rates, with 4.75% on the 10-year bond being the chosen line as Scott Bessent, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, fights.

Goldman Sachs estimates that the purchases, which would begin on September 9th, could reach $128 trillion in a year, in debt from 10 to 30 years of maturity. This is a positive message for bonds and the stock market (it is estimated that 5% in debt costs is the level at which stock prices would suffer), but negative for the dollar, according to Wood, as it injects more money into the market.

The intervention recalls the alarm raised in the White House after the reaction to tariffs on Liberation Day in April 2025, which led to a retreat in this policy. However, investors are unclear about it now. If oil, inflation, and interest rates continue to rise, the Treasury's additional liquidity injection may prove insufficient.

Yesterday, the 10-year U.S. bond was at 4.76% against the new crude surge, dragging down the stock market. Bessent says he is ready for a more comprehensive intervention, something likely to prevent the market from collapsing before the November legislative elections.