Iran Weakened but Defiant After 6 Months of War
Six months after US and Israeli air strikes against Iran launched a conflict that has shaken energy markets and disrupted global shipping, there is still no clear end to the confrontation. While Iran's military capabilities have suffered major damage, it retains leverage in the Strait of Hormuz. Experts interviewed by RFE/RL from across Washington's policy spectrum see the next phase being shaped…
Six months into a war initiated by US and Israeli air strikes, Iran remains defiant despite significant military damage. The conflict continues to impact global energy markets and shipping. Experts suggest four key factors will shape the next phase: Iran's ability to endure economic pressure, the potential for diplomacy to turn military gains into a lasting settlement, the future of the Strait of Hormuz, and whether Russia and China assist Iran in rebuilding.
Retired Vice Admiral Robert Harward warns that economic pressure, if sustained, could endanger Iran's government. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a series of economic measures against Iran on August 24, which he will discuss with G20 finance ministers. China, which accounts for 80% of Iran's oil exports, has resisted US pressure on its trade with Tehran.
Diplomacy appears unlikely to succeed, as Iran's military remains capable of disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil transport. Iran is increasingly using the strait as a bargaining chip, threatening to close it in the future.
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