India’s GDP growth beats RBI forecast in June quarter, expands 7.8%

India's economy expanded by a stronger-than-expected 7.8% in the April-June quarter, surpassing the Reserve Bank of India's forecast of 7%. The central bank had anticipated a lower growth rate of 7%. While this marks a decline from the revised 8.6% growth in the previous quarter, it still outpaced the 6.9% growth seen in the same period last year, or the first quarter of 2025-26.

The upbeat GDP growth has been a recurring theme since mid-2025, despite the war in West Asia causing significant energy price hikes and supply disruptions. Higher wholesale inflation and retail inflation were expected to dampen economic activity, leading to a lower growth figure as predicted by the RBI. However, India's economy appears to have managed the energy crisis more effectively than anticipated.

Economists are already revising their growth forecasts upwards for 2026-27. According to the RBI's projections, GDP growth is expected to ease to 6.4% in the July-September quarter, 6.5% in the October-December quarter, 6.8% in the January-March 2027 quarter, and 7.3% in the April-June quarter. For the full fiscal year 2026-27, the RBI anticipates a growth rate of 6.7%.