IMD predicts below-normal rainfall over India in September
September rainfall across India is predicted to be below normal, concluding the monsoon season deficiently. August was the warmest on record, with several regions experiencing record high temperatures. Cumulative rainfall from June to August shows a significant deficit, impacting agricultural sowing and increasing irrigation costs. Strong El Niño conditions are expected to persist, negatively…
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast below-normal rainfall for the entire month of September, signaling the end of the four-month monsoon season may be deficient overall. This prediction stems from the impact of El Nino, a climate phenomenon that typically weakens the monsoon and brings harsh summer conditions to India.
The month of August was particularly warm, marking it as the warmest August in India since 1901, with an average temperature of 28.010°C. Region-wise, South peninsular India saw the second-warmest August, while East and northeast India recorded their third-warmest, and northwest India experienced its fifth-warmest August in the past 126 years.
To date, the country has faced a 14% deficit in cumulative rainfall from June 1 to August 31, although rainfall was "normal" in July. In June, the deficit reached an alarming 35%. Out of 741 districts assessed for monsoon rainfall, 312 (42%) experienced below-normal rainfall, and 38 districts (5%) reported large deficiencies up to August 31.
A forecast of below-normal rainfall in September could lead to a shortfall in kharif crop acreage. Although most seasonal crops have already been sown, with a 2% decline in acreage compared to the same period last year, reduced rainfall in September may result in higher input costs due to farmers investing in irrigation for standing crops.
IMD Chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra noted that strong El Niño conditions are currently in effect across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with sea surface temperatures remaining above normal. These conditions are anticipated to intensify in the coming months, contributing to the negative impact on September's rainfall. El Niño is generally associated with weak monsoons and harsh summers in India.
Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are currently prevailing over the Indian Ocean, likely to persist through September. This situation, combined with the aforementioned climatic factors, suggests that the monsoon may not receive additional support from this phenomenon, which could further exacerbate the rainfall deficit.
Written by urgent.news from Times of India's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
