Fuel price shock looms as diesel could rise by nearly R3 a litre

South African motorists face potential fuel price hikes starting September 2nd, according to unaudited data from the Central Energy Fund. Petrol prices could see a rise of up to R1.07 per litre for 95 Unleaded and nearly R3 for diesel, with diesel increases of R2.71 for 500ppm and R2.92 for 50ppm. The final adjustments will be made by the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources.

Illuminating paraffin is also expected to increase by R2.12. These predictions rely on unaudited CEF data, with official changes to be announced soon. The Slate Levy, currently 61 cents, may also impact final calculations. 2026 has been volatile for South African fuel prices, with 95 Unleaded petrol increasing by R5.24 between March and August and diesel prices rising by R7.60.

Currently, 95 Unleaded costs R25.30 at the coast and R26.17 inland, while 93 Unleaded retails at R25.42. Wholesale diesel prices are at R25.29 at the coast and R26.16 inland. Petrol prices hit R27.19 in June, while diesel peaked at R30.30 in May. International oil markets have been volatile due to the US-Israeli war with Iran since late February, with oil prices remaining well above pre-war levels of around $70 per barrel.

Despite Brent Crude trading around $90 for most of August, it is still lower than its year-high of $126. JP Morgan predicts Brent crude to average $86 per barrel in Q3 2026, with a potential decline to $80 in Q4 and $78 by year-end. The bank expects demand losses to be larger than anticipated and commercial inventories in OECD countries to be smaller than expected.

China's potential demand destruction and uncertainty over OPEC's future may complicate oil price forecasts.