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Federal Reserve: Warsh’s hawkish shift reshapes rate outlook – Rabobank

Rabobank’s Elwin de Groot discusses Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech and its impact on US rates. He notes that Warsh signalled dissatisfaction with recent inflation and openness to further hikes, lifting near-term rate expectations while lowering longer-term premia.

Federal Reserve: Warsh’s hawkish shift reshapes rate outlook – Rabobank

In his Jackson Hole speech, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signaled a shift in his hawkish stance, expressing dissatisfaction with recent inflation levels and openness to further rate hikes. This change in communication strategy marked a departure from the more dovish approach he had adopted since assuming the Chair role. Warsh's remarks lifted near-term rate expectations, while lowering longer-term premium expectations.

Despite expecting the FOMC to hold off on rate decisions in 2026, Warsh sees renewed upside risks to their forecasts. His speech aimed to build credibility in his fight against inflation and regain the trust of the market.

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