Ecuador Raises El Niño Alert to Red as Pacific Warming Intensifies

Ecuador has escalated its El Niño alert to its highest red level as warming in the Pacific Ocean continues to intensify, according to the latest update from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). The National Risk Management Secretariat (SNGR) made the declaration after the National Committee for the Study of the Regional El Niño Phenomenon (ERFEN) confirmed the conditions met Ecuador's criteria for the phenomenon.

The move activated emergency committees across the country to mobilize resources and prepare for potential preventive evacuations.

The red alert reflects broader climate shifts in the Pacific rather than an immediate forecast of severe weather across all regions. Authorities are monitoring sea surface temperature anomalies of about 4°C in some areas off Ecuador's coast, which indicate significant warming. This warming can alter rainfall, temperature, and atmospheric circulation patterns, posing potential environmental risks throughout the country. However, the alert does not signify that extreme weather events have already occurred.

Ecuador has already experienced an increase in wildfires this year, with 2,553 incidents burning approximately 15,862 hectares between January and August. The red alert comes amid official projections that El Niño could affect nearly 1.3 million residents across 17 provinces, with varying impacts such as heavier rainfall and flooding in some areas, while others may face drought, heat, and water scarcity.

The phenomenon also poses risks to Colombia, where the Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies (IDEAM) estimates a 69% probability that El Niño could reach "very strong" intensity between October and December 2026, surpassing the intensity of events since 1950. Colombia has declared a national disaster situation for 12 months due to the anticipated risks, granting authorities additional mechanisms for preparation and response.