Daniel Stelter: Die Zinswende sprengt die Schuldenillusion
Wer 2020 dem Konsens der „risikolosen“ Bonds und ewig tiefer Zinsen vertraute, hat real mehr als die Hälfte seiner Ersparnisse verloren. Ein Gastbeitrag.
During the recent Notenbankenforum in Jackson Hole, the monetary world witnessed a sudden surge in interest rates. Prior to Monday, the 30-year US yield reached a record high of 5.31 percent, shortly after the financial crisis in 2007. German 30-year yields stood at 3.76 percent, the highest level since 2011. Japanese 30-year bonds hit the four percent mark for the first time in 27 years.
British Gilts yielded as high as they had since 1998. It was hard to imagine such a turnaround. Just a few years ago, articles claimed that low interest rates would be eternal, prompting journalists to question why there should always be a positive risk-free real interest rate. These articles were written during a period when interest rates had been structurally declining for nearly 40 years, largely due to monetary policy aimed at addressing the aftermath of the financial and euro crisis.
The work of economic historian Paul Schmelzing, which tracked real interest rates over 700 years, often served as evidence for this consensus. Schmelzing demonstrated that historically, rates had been consistently falling over centuries, leading many to interpret his study as confirmation of the notion of perpetually low interest rates.
Written by urgent.news from Handelsblatt's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
