Consumers warn of milk price squeeze as formal supply falls

Nairobi, Kenya - Concerns are mounting among consumers as formal-sector milk deliveries have dropped in recent months, prompting the Consumers Federation of Kenya (COFEK) to urge the government to take swift action to avert further shortages and price hikes. According to data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), milk consumption by processors and other formal-sector participants fell by 5 percent to 84.44 million litres in June 2026, down from 88.89 million litres in the previous month.

This decline is also 6.4 percent lower than the 90.24 million litres consumed in June 2025, indicating a tightening of the formal dairy supply chain. COFEK Secretary-General Stephen Mutoro emphasized the need for the government to provide a clear picture of the dairy sector's actual conditions, especially as consumers begin to face higher prices and occasional supply interruptions.

"Consumers deserve a transparent, data-driven account of the dairy sector's state," Mutoro stated. Retailers in Nairobi have already started rationing milk purchases, and the price of fresh milk has risen from Sh70 to Sh80 per liter at Waithaka Dairy Centre. Intermittent shortages of branded packaged milk have also been reported in supermarkets.

The situation is exacerbated by challenges faced by smallholder farmers, who produce about 80 percent of Kenya's milk. COFEK reports that yields for these farmers have dropped from seven to nine liters per cow daily to four to five liters due to delayed rains reducing pasture availability. Added feed costs have risen by about 45 percent, further straining dairy operations.

While the Kenya Dairy Board has warned that some farmers might exit the dairy sector due to the high costs of feeding their cows, COFEK argues that the current pressures are not solely weather-related, citing the lack of strategic management of the milk surplus from the previous year. The federation points out that milk powder from the 2025 surplus was not integrated into the planned strategic food reserves, leaving the market with limited buffers as production difficulties mount.

COFEK asserts that the current issues are not just weather-related, pointing to shortcomings in how the surplus from 2025 was managed. The federation is demanding that the Agriculture Ministry publish a recovery plan within seven days, including monthly milk-intake targets and emergency fodder and feed support for affected counties.

COFEK also calls on the Kenya Dairy Board to explain the status of the 2025 milk surplus and the condition of milk powder reserves. Additionally, the federation seeks the removal of import duty and VAT on dairy-feed ingredients like yellow maize and soya, arguing that lower feed costs would aid farmers in staying in production. COFEK emphasizes that the immediate priority should be to safeguard both farmers and consumers.

The federation is also urging the government to enhance retail price monitoring and provide fortnightly updates on milk supply, prices, and reserves until the supply situation stabilizes. These demands stem from the dairy sector's struggle to balance the needs of farmers and consumers amid the competing pressures of maintaining competitive farm-gate prices while keeping milk affordable for households.