What Kalshi’s Big Court Loss Means for Prediction Markets
The Friday ruling brings a Supreme Court showdown even closer.
On Friday, a three-judge panel from the Ninth Circuit ruled that Nevada can enforce its gambling laws against Kalshi. This unanimous decision brings a Supreme Court fight one step closer, as it creates a "circuit split" where two appeals courts have ruled differently on the same issue. Kalshi, which launched sports-event contracts in January 2024, had advertised itself as "the first app for legal sports betting in all 50 states."
The ruling affirming the district court's order dissolving the injunction as to sports event contracts means that prediction markets face significant challenges, with the Supreme Court showdown appearing "substantially more plausible." Nevada's victory in this case could provide a powerful precedent for state regulators, potentially leading other states to enforce their gambling laws against platforms such as Kalshi, Polymarket, and others currently not offering sports-event contracts in specific states.
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