Wegweisende Volksabstimmung: Island bleibt weiter draußen - EU-Verhandlungen abgelehnt

Iceland rejects EU: Residents of the island nation voted against resuming accession talks in a tight referendum, rejecting the proposals with 52.8 percent. The win of the EU opponents came from outside the capital Reykjavik. With a high voter turnout, around 118,000 people voted against the talks, against about 105,000 in favor.

While still tied closely to the European Union, Iceland will clearly not become a full member. This result was a defeat for the pro-EU Prime Minister Kristín Þorsteinsdóttir, who had announced that the government would follow the decision. She had even announced that she would hold a vote on new EU negotiations at the beginning of her term at the end of 2024.

During the financial crisis of 2009, the small country of about 400,000 inhabitants had submitted an application for EU membership. However, the new, EU-skeptical government froze the accession plans since the 2013 parliamentary election. Just before the vote tally rolled into Sunday morning, the Prime Minister expressed hope that the referendum would not divide the country.

"I know that some people's emotions are running high, but I have spent time with a large group of people from all over the country, and the people are quite open to different outcomes," she said on Icelandic television. The main argument of the EU supporters, that EU membership would bring more security in uncertain times, did not carry the day.

Opponents, on the other hand, argued that NATO membership and a 1951 bilateral defense agreement with the United States would be sufficient. Moreover, the mistrust in US President Donald Trump did not seem decisive enough for EU opponents to have changed their stance. Trump's repeated threats to incorporate the Danish Arctic island of Greenland into the United States were considered a serious factor by observers.

Despite not naming Trump directly, the Prime Minister had said: "We see what countries in our neighborhood have been protected by the European Union." Economically, Iceland is already deeply integrated into Europe: the country is part of the European Economic Area (EEA) and enjoys the benefits of the internal market, but it lacks voting rights on important decisions.

For the EU opponents, it was especially important to retain sovereignty over the fishing industry - the largest and most defining economic sector of the island. The Prime Minister had wanted to negotiate a special rule for this, but the majority now rejected it. Formally, the accession application from 2009 remains in place and has not been withdrawn yet.

It is now possible that the parliament could debate a complete withdrawal. After closed negotiations, another referendum on the final accession decision would have been held initially. But that is now very far in the future. Brussels initially remained silent on the referendum in Iceland. In a time when several EU countries have a surge of eurosceptic forces, a different signal from Reykjavik would have been politically welcome for the EU leadership.

Formally, the negotiations are about candidates countries having to adapt to the EU's values and regulations. These are divided into several areas that can be considered completed depending on the negotiation progress. The EU states that the pace of progress towards accession for a candidate country depends on how quickly the country implements the necessary reforms.

Before the referendum, the Icelandic Foreign Ministry explicitly pointed out that the 2009 accession application would remain valid. During a visit to the island a year ago, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said: "We share common values, we know each other very well, we are on the same page - therefore we are close partners."