View from The Hill: Fresh from its WA triumph, how will One Nation do in the eastern trenches?

The highly contested Secret Harbour byelection in Western Australia, where the insurgent One Nation party won with nearly 40% of the first preferences, has sent shockwaves through the major political parties. This result, in a seat previously held by Labor, has raised the stakes for the upcoming Victorian state election in November and suggests that One Nation could become the unofficial opposition in Australia.

Labor's loss of support in heartland areas, as highlighted in a review chaired by former minister Greg Combet and Lenda Oshalem, is cause for significant concern. The party previously attracted just under one in four primary votes in this seat, and the Liberals performed even worse, failing to win one in five. This result from Secret Harbour, won by One Nation for the first time since the 1998 Queensland state election, demonstrates the party's growing influence and potential to challenge Labor in other seats.

The conservative side of politics has felt the impact of One Nation's rise, especially in Labor heartland seats. The party currently enjoys a commanding 57% two-party preferred vote against Labor's 43%. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese acknowledged the crucial nature of this time for his movement, emphasizing the need to defeat populist and divisive forces.

Hard-right populists are on the march globally, peddling divisive and dishonest politics. The major parties must confront this threat, as they have lost touch with many voters who feel their material circumstances have worsened, aspirations are unmet, and daily life has become more challenging. The professionalized politics of the major parties now feels contrived to many, while One Nation's more authentic approach appeals to those disillusioned with the status quo.

One Nation's strategy includes targeting key Liberal seats, particularly those of frontbencher Andrew Hastie, where there is risk of Labor winning due to divided support. The party's reach extends beyond Victoria, with the appointment of Mike Newman, a former trade official, as a candidate for the upcoming New South Wales election.

Newman's nomination, combined with Hanson's growing influence, presents a significant challenge for the Labor party in key seats. Whether Hanson herself will contest a lower house seat in 2028 remains to be seen, but her impact on the political landscape is undeniable.