Russian Defense Ministry is preparing 'massive strikes' on Ukraine's energy facilities

The Russian Defense Ministry announced on August 30 that Russian forces are preparing large-scale strikes against Ukraine's energy infrastructure. The ministry attempted to rationalize these preparations by citing Ukrainian attacks on civilian facilities and Russian oil refineries. According to Bloomberg, Ukrainian forces launched at least 21 attacks on Russian oil refineries in August, a monthly record.

This surge in attacks has contributed to Russia's ongoing fuel shortages. On the night of August 30, Ukrainian forces targeted the Kirishinefteorgsintez oil refinery in Leningrad Oblast, one of Russia's largest refineries, with a capacity of approximately 20 million metric tons of oil annually. Prior to this, on August 26, Russian media reported that Ukraine had disabled eight of Russia's ten largest retail warehouses controlled by the Wildberries marketplace.

Additionally, late August saw strikes on logistics facilities of Russian online platforms Ozon. A Bloomberg source reported on August 26 that Russia intended to escalate ballistic missile assaults on Kyiv, including the city center, as well as attacks on infrastructure in other Ukrainian cities. There were also discussions among Russian officials about the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine, with the notion gaining traction among hardliners.

Ukrainian Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal stated in an early August interview that Russian forces had destroyed or damaged over 80% of Ukraine's power generation facilities. Shmyhal also expressed worry that Russia might target Ukraine's water supply system before winter. On August 8, analysts from the Institute for the Study of War estimated that Russia might launch a campaign of strikes against Kyiv's energy infrastructure in August to exploit Ukraine's limited ballistic missile defenses.

On August 27, Russian forces conducted multiple strikes on the Naftogaz Group's Kherson thermal power plant, which suffered significant damage and is unlikely to operate in winter. Kherson Oblast Governor Oleksandr Prokudin warned residents, especially families with children and the elderly, to relocate to safer areas if possible.