Putin sets new unrealistic deadline for Russia to capture all of Donbas – ISW

In a recent statement, Deputy Head of the Presidential Office Pavlo Palisa declared that Russian political leadership has set a deadline of December 31, 2026, for their forces to reach the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. However, military leadership within Russia has expressed skepticism about the feasibility of this deadline and has requested it be extended to March 31, 2026.

According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), this is the fifth time since 2022 that Vladimir Putin has set an unrealistic deadline for Russian forces to capture all of Donbas, with none of these deadlines having been met thus far. ISW maintains that the Kremlin's timelines for achieving their military objectives remain unrealistic and predicts that Russian forces are unlikely to capture all of Donbas by the end of 2026, if successful at all.

Furthermore, ISW notes that Russian forces are increasingly reliant on foreign recruits, constituting roughly 30% of forces in the Lyman direction, with these individuals primarily hailing from Latin America, Africa, and Southeast Asia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy echoed Palisa's concerns on June 29, stating that Russia has again postponed its deadline for capturing Donbas to December 31, 2026, and has altered such deadlines about 15 times since the beginning of the full-scale war.

If Russia does not cease hostilities, Zelenskyy suggested that the deadline will need further postponement. On August 26, Zelenskyy announced that two reorganized formations led by Heroes of Ukraine Denys Prokopenko and Andrii Biletskyi would bolster Ukrainian Defense Forces' positions in Donetsk Oblast.