La Bolsa encara septiembre con fuerza para hacer récord

This week, economic factors overshadowed geopolitical concerns, but market volatility is expected to persist after the summer break. August concludes today, and the coming week will be defined by major macroeconomic data releases. Investors must be prepared to handle four key events: the European Central Bank's interest rates on Monday, the U.S. JOLTS employment data and inflation figure on Monday, and the private employment survey from ADP on Wednesday.

After the Jackson Hole central bankers' meeting, the Federal Reserve's Chairman Kevin Warsh's remarks hinted at a dovish stance, urging investors to proceed with trading based on incoming macroeconomic data. The European Central Bank's (ECB) next decision on interest rates is scheduled for September 10, and the Federal Reserve's decision on September 16.

Geopolitical tensions, energy issues, and high inflation will continue to fuel volatility, focusing on the Middle East conflict. Despite these uncertainties, the month has been profitable for variable income investors, with most major world stock indices closing positive. Spain's key index, the Ibex 35, rose 1.31% in August. Trading activity has been lower than in previous summer months but higher than the same period last year.

Media outlets report a median trading volume of €1.35 billion, compared to €1.075 billion in August last year. The banking sector led the gains, with an average increase of 3.91%, ranging from 9.14% for Sabadell to 3.2% for Santander. Strategists consider banking as the reason behind the Ibex reaching the psychological barrier of 20,000 points this week.

Investors are closely watching the banking sector due to pressure on the debt market and estimates of central banks' monetary policies. In August, the most significant gains were for Puig (up 10.25%) and Indra (up 10.04%). Conversely, the most pronounced declines were for Acciona (-11.15%), Ferrovial (-10.61%), and Merlin Properties (-10.29%).

However, the Ibex will mark its fifth consecutive monthly gain, resulting in a 17.55% increase over the period. The year-to-date increase is 15.8%, with a potential rise to 21,078 points, representing a possible 5.2% move. Analysts' consensus, compiled by Bloomberg, anticipates the index could reach 21,078 this year, indicating a potential 5.2% swing.

The recent Nvidia results have clarified doubts about artificial intelligence's growth and the valuation of the U.S. market. Now, investors are focusing on the European stock market, with a less tech-heavy composition and few artificial intelligence names. Large banks like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are hopeful about the European stock market due to its sector diversification, profit forecasts, and valuation.

Meanwhile, Bank of America believes the Stoxx 600 index should correct by 10% as the market overestimates the prospects for both corporate earnings and economic growth in Europe. Experts urge close monitoring of gold and bitcoin this week, which have become refuge assets amid rising debt yields.