Iceland in suspense after close EU vote

Iceland held a referendum on Saturday to decide whether to resume negotiations with the European Union (EU) following a financial crisis in 2009. With voting stations closing at 10pm, the final outcome could take several hours to determine due to the absence of exit polls and the delay in ballot counting. An opinion poll conducted on Friday gave the "Yes" side a slight edge with 50.4% of the vote, but this margin is within the statistical margin of error.

If the "Yes" side wins, Iceland would have to negotiate an accession agreement with Brussels and put it to a new referendum on actual membership. The issue of fisheries, a crucial aspect of Iceland's economy, would need to be addressed with the EU. The referendum is not binding, but the coalition government, led by Social Democratic Prime Minister Kristrun Frostadottir, has pledged to respect the result.

If the "No" side wins, the government will not resume accession negotiations during its term and may refer the question of formal withdrawal from the EU's bid to parliament. Despite the political uncertainty, Iceland's economy has been thriving since the 2009 financial crisis, and many see no reason to join the EU since it is already part of the European single market through the European Economic Area.

However, Iceland's currency remains volatile, and the high inflation and interest rates have left many households concerned about their financial situation. The EU's return to war due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine has heightened concerns among Icelanders about their strategic location in the sub-Arctic and their dependence on NATO for defense.