Wegweisende Volksabstimmung: Island vor EU-Referendum: Ja zu neuen Beitrittsgesprächen?

In a pivotal referendum, Icelandic residents are voting on the resumption of EU accession negotiations. A "Yes" vote would clear the way for new talks with Brussels, while a "No" vote would dissolve the government's plans. Over 270,000 citizens are invited to cast their vote, with one-fifth having already done so according to Icelandic television. The race appears tight.

Iceland's Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir had previously promised her countrymen a vote on new EU discussions upon taking office at the end of 2024. Although the referendum outcome does not yet indicate whether Iceland would ultimately become a member of the EU, debates over the past weeks have centered on the potential benefits of full membership.

Frostadóttir stated that "I view this as one of the most important steps we can take to reduce risks" in an Icelandic television interview during uncertain times when international relations are changing. She noted that surrounding countries have been protected by the European Union. Concerns have also been raised about the reliability of the 1951 bilateral defense agreement with the United States, which the United States has threatened to incorporate.

Iceland, while a NATO founding member, has no standing army. Economically, Iceland is already heavily integrated into Europe, being part of the European Economic Area and benefiting from the internal market, but lacking a say in important decisions.

Worrying about fisheries, Iceland applied for EU membership in 2009 with a population of around 400,000. However, the attempt failed as the new, EU-skeptical government put the membership plans on hold after the 2013 parliamentary elections. Previous discussions were also hampered by the debate over fisheries, which is Iceland's largest economic sector.

The government has therefore particularly feared losing its independence in this area. In a television debate shortly before the referendum, Prime Minister Frostadóttir promised her citizens that Iceland would quickly return to the negotiation table if it were not allowed to retain full control over its fisheries resources. Whether the negotiation table will even be used is contingent on the referendum outcome.

If accession talks ultimately succeed, the Icelandic people will have to decide again: For this scenario, the government has announced a second referendum where Icelanders would vote on membership.