Russia Could Attack a NATO Country to Test the Alliance’s Readiness

Russian President Vladimir Putin may launch an attack on a NATO member to determine if the Alliance can respond effectively, according to a report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The Kremlin would likely pick an operation that creates the greatest likelihood of NATO members failing to coordinate a unified response, potentially preventing the Alliance from providing military aid to the country under siege, ISW analysts stated.

The Baltic countries could be among Moscow's possible targets. Analysts reached this conclusion by reviewing reports tied to CIA Director John Ratcliffe's recent trip to Moscow. ISW sees a full-scale conventional invasion of a NATO country as improbable. Instead, Russia could potentially take advantage of rifts within the Alliance and undermine the credibility of Article 5, which obligates NATO members to offer collective defense.

Another possible aim would be to deter NATO from continuing to offer military support to Ukraine. The assessment emerges as there is increasing worry about Russia's readiness to test NATO's resolve and exploit potential vulnerabilities in the Alliance's collective defense systems.