North Dakota State Dominated FCS. Does That Predict Success In FBS?

Two new collegiate football programs, North Dakota State and Sacramento State, are set to begin their first seasons in Division I FBS competition today. While the betting market assigns them different expectations, their recent performances in Division I FCS suggest a mixed outlook. North Dakota State, the higher-ranked team, is favored by 6.5 points, while Sacramento State, the underdog, opens as a 9.5-point underdog.

Their past seasons in FCS competition provide insight into what to expect in their upcoming FBS seasons. North Dakota State boasts a strong FCS record, having won 50 out of 55 games over their 22-year tenure, including 10 national championships. Their 12-1 record last season laid the groundwork for their transition to FBS. Meanwhile, Sacramento State has also experienced success in FCS, reaching the quarterfinals in 2022 with a 12-1 season.

However, their more recent results have been inconsistent. While the five-year winning percentage of established FCS programs that moved to FBS can offer some indication of their first-year performance, it has a very weak predictive power, explaining only around 5.4% of the variation in first-year FBS winning percentages. Factors beyond just FCS success, such as performance during the final FCS season and previous semiconfidence in the league, can have a more significant impact on a program's first-year FBS success.