History Says All Bear Markets Have 1 Trait in Common -- and It's Fantastic News for Investors
Why bear markets shouldn't scare off smart stockholders.
Recent bear market indicators have investors on edge, but history suggests there is a silver lining. The Buffett Indicator, named after Warren Buffett, highlights the market's current overvaluation. In 2009, Nvidia sparked a similar "Double Down" signal that is now echoing for a smaller company. Meanwhile, 44.4% of individual investors expect a bear market within six months, up from 32.9% predicting a bull market.
This jump occurred within a week. Despite the looming bear market, history indicates promising outcomes for investors. Every U.S. bear market has shared a trait: they are soon followed by a prolonged bull market. The dot-com crash's 31-month bear market ended with a 60-month bull market. The Great Recession's 17-month bear market preceded the longest bull market ever, lasting nearly 11 years.
Bull markets have returned more than the losses of preceding bear markets, often doubling them. Only one bull market returned less than 1.9x the bear market losses since the S&P 500's creation in 1957. When a bear market occurs, history predicts it will likely be short-lived. Investors who stayed invested in the S&P 500 during these periods recovered all their losses and experienced significant gains afterward.
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