Giorgia Meloni is fusing populism and moderation

On September 4th, Giorgia Meloni is set to become Italy's longest continuously serving prime minister since Benito Mussolini. Her tenure is notable in a country where leaders tend to be short-lived. Since taking office in October 2022, she has outlasted prime ministers in stable countries like Britain, France, and the Netherlands.

Meloni, once a hard-right populist, has transformed Italian politics and positioned herself at its centre. Other populist-right leaders in Europe seem to take note that a middle-ground approach can be beneficial. However, Meloni's position is not entirely secure. In March, voters rejected a referendum on justice reforms she had personally supported.

Economic growth remains modest, with GDP increasing by only 1% in the second quarter. Italy is expected to become the euro-zone state with the highest public debt by the end of the year, as the last tranche of European Union post-covid recovery aid nears its end.

Despite these challenges, Meloni appears to be laying the groundwork for a dominant second term. She continues to be Italy's most popular party leader, and polls indicate her party has gained support since the 2022 election. Giovanni Orsino, a pollster, notes that Meloni has become "the person around whom the entire political system is revolving". Former MP Italo Bocchino believes she could remain influential for decades.

Three factors contribute to Meloni's political success. First, her opponents are fragmented, with the opposition split between the progressive Democratic party (PD) and the Five Star Movement. The Five Star Movement, once ideologically diverse, now pushes left of the Democratic party. Giuseppe Conte, leader of the Five Star Movement, has recently split from the Democratic party over support for Ukraine.

Second, the government's activities have been limited. Antonio Misiani, the PD's economic spokesman, argues that the government's ministers are "navigating by sight" rather than developing a comprehensive strategy. Italy's conservatism and aging population make the opposition's reluctance to challenge entrenched interests advantageous for the government.

Third, Meloni's moderate actions have countered her radical rhetoric. Despite her earlier Euroscepticism, Finance Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti has adhered to EU fiscal rules, reducing the budget deficit from over 8% of GDP during the pandemic to approximately 3%. Meloni has maintained strong ties with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, supporting Ukraine and opposing Russia.

She has also resisted Donald Trump's Iran war stance and attacks on the pope. On migration, her rhetoric has been harsher than her policies, as the government has imposed some restrictions while accommodating labor needs by issuing 450,000 visas to non-EU migrants and launching an Africa investment plan.

Meloni's success suggests that moderation is key to staying in power and wielding influence in Europe. However, not everyone agrees. Germany's far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has become even more radical while gaining popularity. AfD co-leader Tino Chrupalla has vowed to never accept compromise on Ukraine or migration issues.

Meloni herself may not maintain moderate policies in the future. If Germany's populist right wins the presidential election next year, the EU's influence might wane. With the post-covid fund having been exhausted and no more access guaranteed, Meloni could propose electoral reforms to secure a majority for her coalition, potentially influencing future Italian presidents.

Her example indicates that for Europe's populists, embracing moderation may be the key to success, but some may still reject this approach.