Close race as Iceland votes on whether to restart talks on joining EU

Icelanders are voting on Saturday to decide if their country should resume talks about joining the European Union, following a 13-year hiatus. A recent poll indicates the "no" campaign is slightly ahead, with 51.6% of respondents. Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir's centre-left government had initially planned to hold a referendum, but international events led to its earlier scheduling.

The referendum's main topic revolves around Iceland's fishing industry and sovereignty, rather than NATO membership concerns. The vote is expected to be decided on Saturday morning, with results due by early Sunday.

The ballot question asks: "Should Iceland resume accession negotiations with the European Union?" Despite being part of the EU's single market and Schengen zone through the European Economic Area, EU membership would involve Iceland in the customs union and eventually the euro. Within the 35 discussion areas, or "chapters," of the talks, 27 have been initiated, and 11 are considered near completion.

A "yes" vote would only signify Iceland's willingness to engage in accession negotiations, with a subsequent referendum and parliamentary approval needed for finalization. A "no" vote, however, would not preclude Iceland from reinitiating talks in the future.

A key issue in the debate is sovereignty over Iceland's fishing grounds, which account for nearly 40% of the country's exports. Opposition to EU membership stems from fears of losing control over these vital resources under the Common Fisheries Policy. Despite the Cod Wars fought against the UK in the 1970s, the issue has remained a significant obstacle to joining the EU.

Now, Iceland is one of Europe's wealthiest nations, though it faces high interest rates (8%) and inflation (5.6%). Yes campaigners argue that EU membership could help alleviate these economic challenges.

Although Iceland is a NATO member, it lacks a military and depends on NATO and the US for defense. The "no" campaign argues that NATO and US membership are not substitutes for EU membership. The country supported Ukraine during the Russian invasion and has expressed concerns over Russia's military activities near Iceland and US President Donald Trump's alleged interest in taking over Greenland.

Ahead of the referendum, the two camps engaged in a televised debate, with Prime Minister Frostadóttir supporting "yes" and opposition leader Guðrún Hafsteinsdóttir leading the "no" campaign.