Close race as Iceland votes on whether to restart talks on joining EU

In Iceland, voters are heading to the polls in a close referendum to determine whether the nation should resume talks on joining the European Union (EU). The referendum, which follows a 13-year break, comes amid tight polls with the "No" campaign currently leading at 51.6%. Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir's center-left government initiated the referendum earlier than planned due to evolving international affairs.

The primary concerns driving the debate are Iceland's fishing industry and sovereignty, with the EU's Common Fisheries Policy posing potential risks to Iceland's prized fishing grounds. The referendum question asks, "Should Iceland resume accession negotiations with the European Union?" Despite already being part of the EU's single market and Schengen zone through the European Economic Area, EU membership would entail joining the customs union and eventually adopting the euro.

The referendum is not a final decision on EU membership, but rather a move towards an accession agreement that would require approval from a second referendum, parliament, the constitution, and the EU's 27 member states. A "Yes" vote would not automatically result in EU membership, and a "No" vote would not preclude Iceland from resuming talks in the future.

Fishing remains a crucial issue, as Iceland's fishing industry accounts for nearly 40% of its exports, and the country fears losing control over its fishing grounds under the EU's Common Fisheries Policy. The EU has indicated potential exemptions, but this concern has been a significant obstacle to any agreement. Iceland, once a founder member of NATO, relies on its allies for defense and has expressed concern over Russia's increased maritime activities near the island.

Economically, Iceland is affluent, with one of the highest GDP per capita in the world. However, interest rates remain high at 8%, and inflation has risen to 5.6%. Proponents of EU membership argue that the economic benefits could help lower interest rates. The referendum also comes amid US President Donald Trump's expressed interest in taking over Greenland, which has raised concerns in Iceland.

The referendum will be held from 09:00 to 22:00 GMT on Saturday, with results expected early Sunday. The question on the ballot is, "Should Iceland resume accession negotiations with the European Union?"