What next? Kurds say yes, Druze still say no to united Syria

The Kurds have agreed to dissolve their independent rule over northeastern Syria after almost 14 years of being governed autonomously. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), led by Kurdish leader Mazloum Abdi, will now be integrated into the central Syrian military, and the oil-rich area they previously controlled will come under the authority of the central government. This leaves Sweida province, home to Syria's Druze minority, as the only area still outside the control of the central government.

Druze leader Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri has expressed his desire for the Druze to be an inseparable part of the state of Israel. He even declared the Druze as part of Israel on Monday in Sweida. However, implementing this vision is difficult due to geographical and demographic factors, as well as Sweida's continued dependence on the central Syrian government for public services and resources.

The tense relationship between the Druze and the Syrian government escalated in July 2025, following intercommunal violence between Druze and Bedouin locals. This violence resulted in over 1,700 deaths and deep mistrust of the new Syrian government among the Druze. Many now question whether a united Syria might be a better option than a semi-autonomous Druze state.

Attempts have been made to repair relations between the Druze community and the central Syrian government, including a road map proposed in September. However, the Druze have rejected this plan, and the central government has not taken significant steps to hold those responsible for the July 2025 violence accountable. The UN's special envoy to Syria stated in June that no progress has been made on the road map.

Given the current situation, it is unlikely that a revolution will occur in Sweida, as al-Hijiri has the backing of Israeli military advisers and financial support. Instead, the Syrian government is hoping to resolve the situation by increasing prosperity elsewhere in the country and relying on state security, administrative, and economic tools. However, this approach may not bring Sweida back under central government control, as the situation remains complex and fraught with challenges.