U.S. trade war is looming over sovereignty debate in Quebec election
Charles Rousseau says he’s always believed in Quebec independence but it won’t be his top priority at the ballot box come Oct. 5, when the province chooses its next government.
The U.S. trade war is casting a shadow over the sovereignty debate in Quebec's upcoming election scheduled for October 5. While the question of a sovereignty referendum once seemed pivotal, a new report from the National Bank reveals Quebec faces the steepest effective tariff rate on exports among all provinces, potentially shifting political priorities.
Parti Québécois leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, who leads public opinion polls since 2023, had pledged a referendum on independence during his first term. However, with the U.S. President Donald Trump threatening Canadian sovereignty, St-Pierre Plamondon has distanced himself from the issue, stating that his top concern during the election will be addressing inflation and the cost of living.
The PQ has also ruled out calling a referendum until Trump is out of office in 2029. Political analysts suggest Trump's influence on the election could be significant, comparing the current campaign to the 2025 federal election when Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberals rallied support against tariff talks. Fréchette, the incumbent premier, has urged Quebecers not to let Trump dictate the outcome of the election.
Despite some brief spikes in support for sovereignty, political scientists agree that instability typically benefits those already in power, and Fréchette's position as the incumbent may give her an advantage.
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