Trump’s Iran War at Six Months: 5 Scenarios for What Comes Next

Six months after Operation Epic Fury, the United States' military campaign against Iran, the country remains largely intact. Although Iran's military infrastructure was damaged, the Revolutionary Guards have grown more powerful, and Tehran has made the Strait of Hormuz a primary bargaining tool. Diplomatic talks are underway to reach an agreement on the Strait, with Iran seeking recognition as an indispensable security actor, while the United States aims to restore freedom of navigation.

The Islamabad Memorandum, signed between Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, remains a possible template for negotiations, but both sides find it difficult to accept. A new round of sanctions, Operation Economic Outcast, targets Iran's remaining economic lifelines, including digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping.

However, the effectiveness of these sanctions depends on the willingness of powerful countries like China to comply. If Iran shows signs of collapsing, such as a weakening rial, falling oil revenues, or inflation, it could be a positive indicator of the sanctions' impact.