Todos contra todos: la guerra de opas que está cambiando el mapa bancario de Italia

In less than two years, major Italian banks have been trying to buy rivals, defend against an opa or seek alliances to grow, in a frenzied round of acquisitions, mergers, and counter-offensives that is reshaping the country's financial map. This war of opas (public offers of acquisition) has intensified in recent months, with offers and counter-offers linking, prey becoming buyers, alliances changing rapidly, and the major entities trying to grow before another competitor overtakes them.

The latest move in this banking Risk, as it is known in Italy, is led by Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS), which has responded to the offensive launched by Intesa Sanpaolo in June with two simultaneous offers for Banco BPM and Banca Generali, valued at a total of 34 billion euros. If MPS can secure both entities, it would significantly increase its size and force Intesa to raise its initial offer of 30.6 billion euros, making the operation more expensive and complicated.

In this strategy, MPS aims to avoid being absorbed and becoming subordinate to a much larger group. "The latest movement of MPS is necessarily a defensive maneuver, but that does not have a negative connotation," explains Stefano Caselli, a professor of Finance at Bocconi University in Milan. In his opinion, Intesa has been preparing a "very meditated and reasoned" operation, while MPS' response faces a considerably more complicated path.

"It is a complex maneuver. This does not mean it is wrong, but it involves many actors and, to reach safe harbor, it requires a broad consensus," he notes. Caselli also doubts whether MPS has the time to gather that support and does not rule out that Intesa may raise its offer, so the transaction remains open. The current wave of purchases and mergers began at the end of 2024.

Banco BPM launched the first offer on fund manager Anima, and soon after, UniCredit, the second-largest bank in Italy, surprised the market with an opa on Banco BPM. The operation, valued at around 15 billion euros, failed in July 2025 when UniCredit withdrew its offer due to the conditions imposed by the Italian government for approval.

At the beginning of 2025, new operations emerged: MPS launched on Mediobanca, one of Italy's historic institutions, and BPER on Popolare di Sondrio. These succeeded. With the acquisition of Mediobanca, MPS also became the largest shareholder of Generali, one of the most coveted assets in the Italian financial sector. While defending itself from MPS, Mediobanca launched its own offer on Banca Generali, which was later withdrawn due to lack of shareholder support.

The case of MPS is especially significant. Just a decade ago, the bank was on the brink of collapse and needed a public rescue; today, after years of restructuring and gradual privatization, it is one of the major players in the Italian banking concentration. Its trajectory reflects how much the sector has changed: after the 2008 financial crisis and the subsequent European debt crisis, most mergers and rescues responded to problems in weak entities.

Now, it is the healthy and profitable banks that seek growth. Caselli identifies several factors behind this acceleration. The first is the good situation in which banks find themselves after years of strengthening their balance sheets. "Italian banks are among the most capitalized in Europe, and when you have a lot of capital, a moment comes when you want to use it," he explains.

This is complemented by good results: according to the latest annual report from the Bank of Italy, the sector's profitability reached its highest level since 2008 in 2025. "When you have very capitalized banks and very good results, at some point, you have to do merger and acquisition operations. It's pretty inevitable," he says.

Another factor is size. Italian large banks are still smaller than their main European competitors: according to the Bank of Italy, the five largest have on average only a quarter of the assets of their French and Spanish counterparts and are also smaller than their German peers. This leaves room for growth. "There is still space for different banks to become even larger," Caselli asserts, citing Banco BPM, BPER, Unipol, or Crédit Agricole among entities capable of continuing to grow.

Moreover, there is a domino effect: each new operation forces the rest to rethink their position, either to grow or avoid becoming the next target. Growing in size is also a matter of international competitiveness. For Caselli, mergers and acquisitions are "a necessary step" to compete in Europe and have large banks capable of accompanying Italian companies in their international expansion.

However, he warns that size is not enough: "It's not just about size, but also about the industrial model." Entities must be able to integrate their businesses and serve their clients well. Caselli believes Italy has room for two major international banks and refers to France with BNP Paribas and Crédit Agricole, and Spain with Santander.

Italy should aim for at least one global giant and several strong national entities. However, this consolidation should not stop at Italian borders. "Consolidation should also happen at the European level," he asserts. In his view, Europe needs large banks capable of supporting its companies and competing with the global giants.