Stock futures mixed as investors await Warsh's Jackson Hole speech

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver a significant speech on Friday during the annual economic symposium held at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in Wyoming. This comes as the central bank grapples with persistent inflation and a bond market increasingly concerned about future policy actions. Last week, the 30-year Treasury yield hit a 19-year peak before briefly falling after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced plans to double the maximum amount of long-term debt the government can repurchase through auctions.

This week, the inflation gauge used by the Fed reported a 3.7% increase in prices over the past year, alongside the economy shedding 23,000 jobs in the previous month.

Warsh's upcoming speech will also focus on his communication strategy. Since replacing former Chair Jerome Powell, Warsh has generally avoided signaling the bank's future actions. President Donald Trump has vocally pushed for lower interest rates, although the prevailing expectation is that the Fed will keep rates steady at its upcoming September meeting.

Scheduled to begin at 10 a.m. EDT, Warsh's address will be live-streamed on the Federal Reserve Board Calendar website. Investors view this opportunity for Warsh to provide more clarity on his "reaction function" — the economic conditions that would prompt the Fed to change interest rates. Currently, markets estimate a 34% chance of a rate increase at the Fed's September meeting.

Warsh took over as Fed chair in May and has presided over just one FOMC meeting thus far, where policymakers decided to keep the federal funds rate within the 3.5%-3.75% range. Since his appointment, he has refrained from offering forward guidance or outlining the factors that would influence his rate decisions, leaving investors to analyze economic data and forecast policy moves on their own.

"People keep asking me what I'm expecting, and I'm not really expecting much of anything," said Luke Tilley, chief economist at M&T Bank and Wilmington Trust Investment Advisors, according to CNBC. "If I had to guess, he's going to give a high-level, broad overview of the task forces' work and how he envisions the Fed should operate, rather than a detailed analysis of the economy and expectations for policy."