Reserve Bank of New Zealand: Gradual hiking path into 2027 – TD Securities
TD Securities’ Prashant Newnaha and Howard Du expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to raise the Official Cash Rate by 25 bps to 2.75% in September, in line with market pricing.
TD Securities predicts the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will gradually increase the Official Cash Rate (OCR) through 2027, with a 25 basis point rise to 2.75% in September. The OCR is expected to stay around 3% by year-end and reach around 3.30% as a terminal rate, with additional 25 basis point hikes anticipated in December 2026 and February 2027.
The RBNZ is likely to maintain its current OCR projection, with no significant changes to the negative output gap projection. Following the September hike, further 25 basis point tightening is expected at the Bank's December 26 and February 27 meetings.
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