Premiers at odds over leveraging potash in Canada’s trade war with U.S.

Premiers across Canada are deeply divided on whether to utilize the country's natural resources, such as potash, as a bargaining chip in the ongoing trade war with the United States. Potash, a critical component in fertilizers, is a major export for Canada, with the United States importing around 85 percent of its supply from Canadian sources.

While Ontario Premier Doug Ford advocates for using potash as leverage against the U.S., Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith express concerns about the potential negative consequences of such a move.

NDP leader Avi Lewis and Green Party leader Elizabeth May have both called for an export tax on various resources, including potash, to retaliate against the U.S. However, Moe warns that withholding potash would have severe economic repercussions for Saskatchewan and the nation at large. He argues that the United States would simply switch to purchasing potash from other countries, resulting in job losses and higher prices for Canadians.

Moe proposes leveraging access to additional potash production in trade negotiations as a possible solution.

However, experts suggest that the impact of such a move might be limited. Heather Exner-Pirot, a senior fellow and director of natural resources at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, explains that the potash market in the United States is already saturated, and Canadian potash companies have been proactively stockpiling supplies to prevent any potential tariff effects. Consequently, imposing an export tax on potash may not have a significant impact on the U.S. market.

The differing perspectives among premiers may indicate cracks in the "Team Canada" approach that has been promoted by premiers and the prime minister over the past year. However, some experts argue that the impact on the West is much less severe, as the auto and steel sectors are less affected by the U.S. tariffs.