Poll: Pappas holds commanding lead in N.H. Democratic primary

Rep. Chris Pappas, a Democrat from New Hampshire, currently holds a dominant lead in the state's Democratic primary race for the Senate, according to campaign data shared exclusively with Semafor. This significant advantage comes after a recent UNH poll placed Pappas ahead of Democrat Karishma Manzur by a staggering 13 points in the primary.

Pappas is receiving 71% of the Democratic votes, compared to Manzur's 15%, with a remaining 14% of voters still undecided. The internal survey, conducted between August 19 and 25, involved 422 Democratic primary voters. While Democrats are not overly concerned about Pappas' strong position, they are keenly aware of the potential for a closely contested general election.

The UNH poll also suggested that former Republican Senator Chris Sununu has a narrow lead over Pappas in the general race, and similar tight results are surfacing in other polls. Private polls conducted in August have even indicated that the race might be tied. Pappas has been preparing for this possibility, stating in June that New Hampshire remains "very much a purple state," and predicting the race will remain "in the margin of error from here to November."

However, the UNH poll might be an exception, as Pappas has consistently led in other public polls by 20 points or more. Pappas has garnered support from various factions within the Democratic Party, including progressive heavyweight Senator Elizabeth Warren. Manzur's most prominent national endorsement has come from former Rep. Jamaal Bowman.

Senator Bernie Sanders, I-VT, has not endorsed either candidate, and it remains uncertain whether he will. In his own primary race, Sununu still needs to defeat former Senator Scott Brown, although the latest UNH poll indicates a significant lead for Sununu.