Peru’s Water Deficit Puts 8.1 Million Hectares of Farmland at Risk

Peru's disaster-risk agency has warned that 8.1 million hectares of farmland could face a water deficit starting in October, coinciding with the planting season. Cenepred, the national disaster-risk estimation center, identifies this risk across 484 districts in 16 departments, with the most severe threat in the central and southern regions.

An additional 4.6 million hectares of crops are at high risk, covering 656 districts in 22 regions, and 14 million hectares of pasture and 15 million head of livestock are exposed to the threat. The jump from earlier warnings of 1.4 million hectares at risk in July highlights the urgency of the situation. El Niño weather patterns are the primary driver, causing coastal warming and altering rainfall patterns.

River flows are declining, and southern reservoirs are losing stored volume, with the Tinajones reservoir at 35.4 percent of capacity and Paucarani at 48.5 percent. Temperatures are also above normal, enhancing evaporation and pest proliferation while raising wildfire risks. The 2026-2027 farming campaign commences in September, potentially leading to delays in sowing rain-fed fields.

Key crops like potatoes, quinoa, maize, broad beans, and cereals in the central and southern Andes are particularly vulnerable, along with export fruit such as mangoes, onions, and asparagus, which have already seen reduced harvests due to El Niño conditions. Through November, heat anomalies may disrupt flowering and reduce yields of blueberries, mangoes, table grapes, and avocados, crops crucial to Peru's export boom.

From December to March, heavy rains could damage these exports, impact transportation networks, and further exacerbate the crisis. With nearly 2.8 million people in high-risk areas, the agricultural sector is already familiar with such challenges, having previously suffered reductions in production due to extreme weather events.