Oil prices swing between war risk and diplomacy after six months of Iran standoff

Crude oil prices have fluctuated significantly over the past six months of the Iran conflict, starting around $72.48 a barrel in February and reaching nearly $120 a barrel in April before dropping again. The market has been caught between geopolitical risk and hopes for a return to normal oil flows, with every development in the conflict impacting prices.

Brent, the global oil benchmark, was at $72.48 a barrel on February 28 and reached $89.39 a barrel on August 4. West Texas Intermediate was at $67.02 in February and $82.99 at the same date. Following the ceasefire announcement in June, oil companies' businesses and stock prices surged. Despite ongoing US-Iran diplomatic efforts, analysts are monitoring the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates.

The Fed's decision to keep rates low, despite high energy prices, has complicated matters, as higher oil prices can be inflationary and influence monetary policy decisions. With lower oil prices and a hawkish Fed outlook, economic data and labor market performance are becoming key factors in determining the Fed's future actions.