Oil goes down 5% as Trump shuts door on Iran deal

Oil prices experienced a decline of 5% on Friday, potentially marking the first weekly drop in three weeks. This trend occurred despite a rise in oil prices the previous day following a report from the Wall Street Journal. The report suggested that U.S. President Donald Trump had no interest in revisiting the terms of an earlier agreement with Iran.

The Wall Street Journal, citing sources familiar with the situation, mentioned that the Trump administration had repeatedly expressed its unwillingness to revive the June memorandum of understanding, making diplomatic talks between Washington and Tehran more challenging.

The report emerged just a day after the U.S. announced the implementation of the most stringent sanctions on Iran in history. Tehran condemned these measures as inhumane and hostile, stating they had lost their effectiveness. Geopolitical tensions further escalated with Russia warning it might target British military assets in Ukraine in response to attacks, and Trump asserting that Russian President Vladimir Putin would not attack a NATO country. Additionally, Britain, a founding member of NATO, was considered in the mix.

The duration of any disruption to oil supplies would significantly impact crude prices. JPMorgan estimated that each extra month of disruption could add $7 to $8 a barrel to Brent prices, with the bank forecasting that Brent prices could climb to around $114 a barrel if disruptions continued for three months. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs warned that Brent could rise to $120 a barrel if shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most crucial oil transit route, persisted.

The bank expects Middle East tensions to eventually ease under its base case, with Brent averaging $80 a barrel in the fourth quarter and $75 a barrel the following year. Goldman Sachs cautioned that risks remained tilted to the upside, as disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea might last longer than anticipated.