Morning Bid: Six months and counting

Six months have passed since President Donald Trump's initial estimate of a four to five week Iran conflict, and the financial markets remain resilient despite the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Approximately 20% of global energy once passed through this critical waterway, but it has largely been closed since February 28. The exact amount of oil currently moving through remains unclear, with estimates ranging from 5 million barrels per day to over 8 million.

While Brent crude oil prices have fallen below $90 a barrel, refined product prices continue to alarm, with European diesel profit margins reaching record highs. Diplomatic efforts between Iran and its neighbors, including Oman and Qatar, have gained traction, with Iran reportedly working to finalize a deal over the strait's control.

However, these moves may be influenced by recent U.S. economic sanctions. Canada, Canada's second-largest trading partner, is also facing U.S. tariffs on goods, including lumber and dairy, while threatening retaliation with 50% tariffs on autos, trucks, and auto parts. Despite these tensions, AI stocks, particularly Nvidia, have seen significant gains, while other tech companies have released positive earnings forecasts.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve continues discussing inflation and central banking strategies at its annual Jackson Hole symposium.