Memory supply crunch to last through 2030, predicts SK Hynix CEO

SK Hynix CEO Kwak Noh-jung has forecasted that the memory semiconductor shortage caused by the rise of artificial intelligence will persist until the end of 2030. During a news conference in West Lafayette, Indiana, after the opening of a new fab in the state, Kwak noted that while uncertainty surrounds the situation, there are no clear indications of a decline in the shortage.

He expects the memory market to continue to suffer through the end of 2030. Kwak also hinted at potential increased investment in the United States following the US government's push for front-end wafer-fabrication plant investments. However, he emphasized that no specific locations have been chosen or investment plans finalized.

Optimistically, Kwak projected that the memory market's next downturn will be different from previous ones due to the evolution of AI memory chips into customized products. He stated that in the past, the memory business was essentially a commodity where all chipmakers competed in the same market. However, AI memory chips like HBM are becoming customized and require collaboration with clients from the early stages of product development, allowing for earlier market demand prediction.

Kwak also left room for additional overseas investments, citing SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won's principles stating that any foreign site providing sufficient resources like water, electricity, labor, and subsidies could be considered. Kwak also mentioned ongoing discussions regarding SK Hynix's IPO for its NAND flash subsidiary Solidigm and its stake in Japanese NAND flash memory maker Kioxia, stating that decisions have not been made yet.

Lastly, the CEO announced plans to invest in AI-related startups through a US-based AI subsidiary, with potential investments in logic circuits on the base die starting with HBM4, signaling the convergence of memory and logic semiconductors.