Leitzins: Inflation in Frankreich und Spanien zieht an – EZB‑Zinserhöhung erwartet

Inflation in France and Spain is on the rise in the Eurozone, with consumer prices increasing significantly in both countries in August. French goods and services rose by an average of 2.7% compared to the same month last year, up from 2.4% in July, according to France's statistics agency Insee. Spanish inflation climbed even higher, from 3.9% to 4.5%, according to Spain's statistics agency INE.

Both figures are calculated using uniform European standards. The primary driver of inflation this month, according to Bantleon chief economist Daniel Hartmann, is fuel prices. Spain's Economy Ministry attributes this to ongoing tensions in the Middle East, which has effectively blocked the Hormuz Strait, the primary route for about a fifth of global oil supply.

This could push the annual inflation rate in the Eurozone past its May high of 3.2%. Hartmann predicts a rise to 3.3%, up from 2.9% in July. Eurostat is expected to release an initial estimate next week. Inflation remains well above the European Central Bank's (ECB) two percent target, and the bank could raise its key interest rate for the second time this year in September, from 2.25% to 2.50%.

The ECB's July meeting protocols indicated a further rate hike may be necessary unless inflation prospects improve significantly. The ECB first raised rates in June, for the first time in nearly three years, and paused at the July meeting.