Konjunktur: Deutsche Chemie wird Krisenprofiteur des Iran-Kriegs

The German chemical industry, battered by crisis, is experiencing a sudden upswing: for the first time in four years, companies rated their current business situation positively in August, according to the Munich Ifo Institute. The indicator surged from minus 14.6 points in July to a positive 11.6 points. This positive shift is attributed to losses from Asian supplies due to the Iran war.

The combined indicator for the business climate in the sector, encompassing current conditions and expectations for the coming months, rose from minus 26.3 points to minus 2.4 points.

Anna Wolf, an Ifo scientist, described this as a "special conjuncture." The Iran war and the closure of the Hormuz Strait have severely impacted gas and other chemical raw materials deliveries to Asia, resulting in production declines. Additionally, China imposed export restrictions on sulfuric acid, a chemical crucial for fertilizer production and other products.

Meanwhile, Iran-aligned Huthi rebels continue to threaten shipping in the Red Sea, affecting the Suez Canal, leading many Asian ships to take the long route around Africa's southern tip, resulting in higher costs and longer delivery times.

Given the ongoing conflict, German chemical companies anticipate the continuation of this special conjuncture, but this does not signify resolution of fundamental structural issues in Germany. Thus, further layoffs in the chemical sector can be expected according to the survey. The Ifo Institute conducts monthly surveys of several thousand companies across all sectors, excluding agriculture, for its economic prognosis.