Iran expert on China’s balancing act amid conflict with US and Israel

Markets may be anticipating a swift resolution to the Iran conflict, yet one industry expert warns that they could be gravely mistaken. According to the Financial Times, Jacob Meldgaard, CEO of Danish tanker firm Torm, anticipates the war could slide into a protracted stalemate akin to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Meldgaard suggests a months-or-years-long deadlock is more probable than a swift conclusion, despite the significant economic strain already inflicted by the strife.

Anticipating a breakthrough, markets have seen oil prices dip this week following Iran-Oman talks aimed at resuming shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. However, the US maintains the threat of stiffer sanctions against Tehran, adding to the uncertainty. While oil costs have eased, freight rates for Middle East-China shipments remain elevated.

Meldgaard posits neither Washington nor Tehran appears poised to alter course, with the US unlikely to pivot from punitive measures and Iran and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps unlikely to relent. This leaves the Gulf Coast bracing for a crisis that could endure far longer than anticipated, potentially requiring a recalibration of operations rather than a return to pre-conflict norms.

The conflict has also shaken tanker shipping economics. Torm, operating nearly 100 vessels carrying gasoline, diesel, and other refined fuels, reported a second-quarter net profit of $338 million, nearly six times its profit from the same period last year, buoyed by surging freight rates during the conflict. This underscores how the war has produced winners amid the risks for the energy and shipping sectors.

Gulf nations are also adapting by bolstering their tanker fleets to continue shipping crude and fuel through Hormuz despite Iranian threats. For private shippers, however, the risks remain personally significant, with Meldgaard noting seafarers' safety remains a critical concern, even as oil companies increasingly see safeguarding energy flows as a strategic priority.

The outcome of this conflict may not be remedied merely by economic disruption; if Meldgaard's prediction holds true, markets might have to brace for a more enduring geopolitical stalemate at the core of global energy commerce.