Hungary: Retail data may offer upside surprise – ING

ING’s economist Peter Virovacz predicts that Hungary’s second-quarter GDP release will reveal a weaker-than-anticipated quarter, with agriculture and construction contributing negatively, while services and industry provide some support. Investment is expected to be a significant negative surprise. Early third-quarter data, particularly July retail sales, might rebound due to the FIFA World Cup's impact and lower fuel prices, presenting a potential upside risk.

The Statistical Office will unveil additional details on second-quarter economic activity, with final 2Q26 GDP figures expected on September 1st. Following a robust first quarter, investors anticipated similar growth in the second quarter, but the estimate was disappointing. Agriculture and construction are anticipated to be the main drivers of the slowdown, while services will likely be the main growth driver, bolstered by industry as well.

Consumption is the key final use, but investment activity is expected to have a substantial negative impact, possibly being the most significant surprise factor. The first official data on the third quarter is slated for September 4th. After a disappointing June retail performance, an upturn is anticipated. This rebound is expected to be partly fueled by the FIFA World Cup's positive effect on both food and non-food retail.

As fuel prices decline in the first half of September and are expected to rise later, fuel sales may also increase. July retail sales could potentially show an upside surprise.