Hawkish Fed Chair Warsh Boosts the Dollar and Sinks Gold

The US dollar surged to a two-week high on Friday, soaring +0.61% after hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Warsh. In his speech, Warsh signaled that inflation remains stubbornly high and that policymakers will continue their efforts to bring inflation back to their 2% target. This hawkish stance increased the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike at their upcoming FOMC meeting from 36% to a 57% probability.

Additionally, a surprising revision upward in the US Aug consumer sentiment index and a drop in US 2026 nonfarm payrolls expectations contributed to the dollar's strength. However, a weaker-than-expected revision to August Michigan consumer sentiment data and a contraction in the Aug MNI Chicago PMI put a damper on the dollar's gains.

Meanwhile, gold and other precious metals suffered significant losses as the dollar's rise boosted the chances of a Fed rate hike and raised global bond yields.