Gulf Oil Exports Rebound Despite Iran War
Oil volumes moving out of the Persian Gulf have recovered to about two-thirds of the typical levels from before the Iran war, Goldman Sachs says, noting that the jump in exports could cap oil prices even if the Middle East conflict drags on further. As many as 15 million to 16 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude and petroleum products are now leaving the whole Middle East region, about 5 to 6…
Oil shipments out of the Persian Gulf have rebounded to nearly two-thirds of their pre-Iran war levels, according to Goldman Sachs. Analysts estimate that 15 million to 16 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude and petroleum products are now flowing from the entire Middle East region, a 5-6 million bpd increase over the March low point.
While this is still about 7-8 million bpd below the February levels, the recent surge suggests oil prices may remain relatively stable, even if the conflict persists. Specific to the Strait of Hormuz, Goldman's experts believe that the flow there is now close to the U.S. estimate of 8 million to 10 million bpd. The bank attributes this growth to specialized shippers and ship-to-ship transfers, indicating that producers and traders are adapting to the regional turmoil.
Recent reports from unnamed traders suggest that Qatar and Kuwait have managed to restore crude oil exports to 70% of pre-war levels through the Hormuz Strait and the Gulf of Oman, thanks to shuttle services and dark move transits. As a result, the total oil flow through the Hormuz Strait has risen to approximately 7-8 million bpd, up from around 4 million bpd in mid-July.
The bank notes that these under-the-radar operations and innovative solutions by Gulf states have helped maintain oil supply, albeit at a reduced rate compared to February's levels.
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