Gold: Jackson Hole keeps consolidation risk elevated - OCBC

OCBC's Christopher Wong maintains a constructive outlook on Gold, but notes the current rebound appears increasingly mature due to rising inflation, higher yields, and a stronger US dollar. The immediate macro test will be Jackson Hole, with key resistance at 4700-4769 and support at 4574, followed by 4520. The recent inability to sustain gains near recent highs and the subsequent rebound in yields and the USD signal against chasing in the short term.

Jackson Hole will provide crucial insight into the Fed's reaction function. If a speech that continues tightening policy emerges, yields and the USD may continue to climb, further consolidating gold prices. Conversely, if Warsh indicates financial conditions remain tight and postpones another rate hike, yields and the USD might ease again, potentially reopening the topside for gold.

The next significant resistance level is at 4700 (the recent high) and 4769 (50% Fibonacci retracement of the 2026 high to low). Support levels include 4574 (38.2% Fibonacci), 4520, 4380 (21, 100-day moving averages), and 4333 (23.6% Fibonacci). Despite this, the weekly dashboard reveals a more optimistic picture for gold. Gold ETF holdings are rising, while net longs from managed money also increased in the latest reporting week.

Positioning has recovered from recent lows but still lags behind the higher levels observed at previous peak periods. Additionally, US fiscal concerns provide another layer of support for gold. US net interest outlays have surged from around 9% of federal receipts in 2022 to nearly 19% in 2025. During the same timeframe, gold prices have also climbed sharply.

While the FXStreet Insights Team, an expert-led group, has produced this report, it is important to note that this content is based on observations from commercial specialists and insights from both internal and external analysts.