German chemical industry mood turns positive for first time in four years, Ifo says

Germany's chemical industry witnessed a significant shift in business sentiment in August, marking the first positive outlook in four years, according to the Ifo institute. The industry's business climate index surged from a seasonally adjusted minus 26.3 in July to minus 2.4 points, while the current conditions gauge improved from minus 14.6 to 11.6 points, signaling its first positive reading since July 2022.

However, the underlying industry conditions remain weak, with German chemical production still lagging about 20% behind 2021 levels. Stronger exports have been fueled by supply disruptions in Asia and the Middle East, increasing demand for German chemical products, although this advantage may be fleeting as Asian supply chains stabilize.

The positive trend was also evident in corporate results, with BASF, Evonik, and Brenntag recently raising their full-year profit forecasts due to supply disruptions outside Europe boosting prices and demand. Despite the improvement in order books and sentiment, capacity utilization remains low at 73.2% in the third quarter, well below the long-term average and the levels needed for efficient plant operation.

Chemical firms continue to plan job cuts as low utilization rates leave the sector with excess labor capacity. Structural challenges persist, including high gas prices, supply security concerns, and rising CO2 costs, with no policy measure expected to substantially enhance competitiveness in the current cycle.