Florida Governor's Race Shifts From 'Solid Republican' by Top Forecaster
Democrats have not won the Florida governorship in more than 25 years but are hoping for an upset in the Sunshine State.
The Cook Political Report has updated its forecast for the Florida governor's race, shifting it from a "Solid Republican" to "Likely Republican" status. This change suggests that the contest may be more competitive than previously anticipated. The shift is attributed to Democrat David Jolly, a former Republican congressman, who is challenging Republican Byron Donalds, a Trump-backed candidate.
Jolly, running with former Democratic Representative Gwen Graham, is hoping to attract independent voters and disaffected Republicans. Despite Jolly's appeal, Donalds maintains a significant financial lead, having raised over 10 times more funds than his Democratic opponent. Florida's political landscape has shifted rightward in recent years, with President Donald Trump winning the state by nearly 13 points in 2024 and Governor Ron DeSantis securing reelection by nearly 20 points in 2022.
Republicans also enjoy a substantial registration advantage over Democrats, and the state's newly redrawn congressional map further strengthens the GOP's position. However, no Democrat has won the Florida governorship in more than 25 years, making an upset in the Sunshine State a possibility. While Donalds enters the general election with a substantial financial and political edge, Jolly's campaign argues that the race is moving in Democrats' direction, with the pair attracting significant independent and Republican support.
Both campaigns have released statements regarding Cook's updated forecast, with Donalds' team maintaining a substantial lead and Jolly's team emphasizing their momentum and growing appeal.
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