Dollar Strength and Increased Middle East Oil Flows Weigh on Crude Prices

On Friday, WTI crude oil (CLV26) closed down 0.16% and RBOB gasoline (RBV26) closed up 2.00%. The dollar index ($DXY) rose to a 2-week high, contributing to the modest losses in crude prices. There are indications of increased Middle East oil flows, which is bearish for crude. President Trump's lack of interest in returning to the terms of the Iran deal casts doubt on normal oil flows from the Middle East.

Goldman Sachs reported oil exports from the Persian Gulf have risen to 15-16 million bpd, roughly two-thirds of pre-war levels. The possibility of Venezuela leaving OPEC could increase the chances of a price war as remaining members compete for customers and market share. US sanctions on Iran could further limit crude supplies. Despite the challenges, crude prices were supported by concerns about Russian crude production disruption due to ongoing attacks on Ukrainian oil infrastructure.

OPEC approved a production increase of 188,000 bpd for September, but this may be challenging to achieve amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict.