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India could discover new avenues for boosting exports to Canada amid strengthening bilateral economic ties and Canada's trade disputes with the US, according to a report by Rubix Data Sciences. The two nations aim to double their bilateral trade in goods and services to $50 billion by 2030, with negotiations for a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) underway in its third round since March 2026.

Canada and India are set to focus on sectors such as energy, critical minerals, technology, innovation, and supply chains in the coming phase of bilateral engagement.

India's exports to Canada have grown steadily, from $3.8 billion in FY2022 to $4.7 billion in FY2026, reflecting a 6% CAGR. However, imports from Canada dropped sharply from $4.6 billion in FY2024 to $3.3 billion in FY2026, reversing a $0.2 billion trade deficit in FY2025 into a $1.4 billion surplus in FY2026. The country's export basket to Canada is shifting towards higher-value manufactured products, with pharmaceutical exports rising to 11% in FY2026 from 8% in FY2022. Auto components and diamonds also saw an increase.

Canada plans to impose retaliatory tariffs of 15%, 25%, and 50% on certain US products in September, targeting sectors such as steel, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, and electronics. India already has a foothold in these sectors, exporting around $1 billion worth of goods in FY2026. Machinery and mechanical appliances led this export category, followed by iron and steel and electrical machinery and equipment.

Indian companies could capitalize on this existing supplier base to capture a larger share of Canadian demand as businesses diversify from US suppliers impacted by tariffs. However, the potential for growth will depend on factors like tariffs, competitive edge of Indian suppliers, and prevailing market conditions.