Aussie dollar set for strong week as hot inflation boosts RBA hike bets

The Australian dollar surged to a three-month high on Friday, signaling a strong week ahead as unexpectedly robust inflation reignited expectations of a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate hike. The AUD/USD exchange rate was last up around 0.1%, reaching its highest point since May 15 at $0.72. The pair was poised for a 0.4% weekly increase, marking its fifth consecutive weekly gain.

According to recent data, Australia's monthly consumer price index (CPI) jumped 1.0% in July, surpassing economists' projections of a 0.8% rise. While annual inflation decreased to 3.5% from 3.8%, the trimmed mean, considered the RBA's benchmark for underlying inflation, rose by 0.5% month-over-month and accelerated to 3.6% annually.

This positive economic outlook spurred market expectations of another RBA rate increase, with the probability of a September hike climbing to approximately 38% from 17% prior to the inflation report.

Westpac analysts acknowledged the potential for a November rate hike, but cautioned against overreacting to a single data point. They emphasized that further evidence is required before committing to a hike lock-in. The RBA had kept its cash rate at 4.35% in August following three consecutive rate hikes earlier in the year, citing persistently high inflation. The central bank remained optimistic that inflation would normalize and return to the midpoint of its target range by early 2028.