A Big Bet on Explosive AI-Driven Growth
Wow! The excellent Ben Moll has put together a high-stakes bet on US economic growth. A bet on near-term explosive AI-driven growth: whether U.S. real GDP per capita will grow by at least 15% within a single year (measured relative to prior peak) by the end of 2033. Agreed on X, 15–16 August 2026. This […] The post A Big Bet on Explosive AI-Driven Growth appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION .
A high-stakes bet has been placed on near-term explosive AI-driven growth in the US economy, with the potential for real GDP per capita to increase by at least 15% within a single year, as measured relative to a prior peak, by the end of 2033. The agreement on the terms was made on X, on 15–16 August 2026.
Three individuals are involved in the bet, each staking a significant amount. Fast-growth side, which includes Ben Moll, Samuel Albanie, and Tom Cohen, has collectively contributed $60,000. This side would win if the growth condition is met. On the other hand, the no-fast-growth side, composed of Benjamin Moll and Andrew Ho, has contributed a total of $240,000.
The odds for this bet are set at 4:1, meaning every dollar staked by the fast-growth side is matched by four dollars from the no-fast-growth side. This gives the fast-growth scenario an implied probability of 20%.
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